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No it is not Chem Trails

There is a lot of talk about chemtrails, cloud seeding, and man-made weather. Some claim that all the floods in Australia, especially Lismore, are man-made. Cloudseeding is blamed, some even blame chemtrails. What I find interesting is that pretty much everything they mention as part of chemtrails is directly related to Grand Solar Minimum activity and weather patterns, odd? Perhaps.

Although cloud seeding is real, scientific, and almost an exact science, you cannot make rain out of thin air. Certain weather conditions need to be met before you can make rain. It is sad that there are individuals who hype up the natural cycles, claiming it is the Government, etc, only to “collect” more “souls”. It is almost like the number of followers is an indication of the quality and trustworthiness of the information. 

This post is going to be a mixed bag, as I am not interested in debunking the chemtrail theory. It is not my mission or responsibility to convince you or change your beliefs. I do think I have a responsibility to provide you with a warning, a warning backed by climate cycles, history, and solid science. 

The BOOM in January

2022 goes into the history books as a weird year for sure. Not unexpected, due to the Grand Solar Minimum cycles, but weird nonetheless. I live in a, what I thought, reasonably stable location, yet we had an earthquake this year, and then we had a big BOOM in Tonga. There is no doubt that as we go deeper into the Grand Solar Minimum the earth will shake a bit more, and rattle a bit more here and there. Leading up to 2024-2025 when the Sun’s poles will shift, generally, when that happens we see “havoc” here on earth. So you know, it will not be the end of the world we just have to adjust… and adjusting we must. 

At the time I did not think much of it, and I am not a volcano, earthquake, or geo person for that matter. It was when the news started to trickle in, I figured something big happened. Checking the usual channels, it confirmed it was HUGE. I figured it is going to be wet and cold, an acceleration of the Grand Solar Minimum weather conditions. 

The image below shows you how big the BOOM was. 

Tonga Sound Boom
Image by Michael Bunds, shock wave passing the weather station in UTAH

It was not only a BOOM.

As expected the TONGA eruption will bring the temperatures down, for a year or two, on top of the Grand Solar Minimum, time will tell. I think it was Jennifer Marohasy who posted a video about the possibility that the Tonga eruption caused the big wet in AU. 

Then there is a lot of hype around chemtrails, which are not cloud seeding events, that are allegedly done by the Government for whatever reason. There is plenty of clickbait to be found on the internet about that. Many people are excited about it, claiming it is real, yet no real study has been done by those claimants. Mostly it is rechewing of data that is presented by one or two sources, nothing original. 

We see photos of lines in the sky claiming them to be chemtrails, sure plane exhausts are chemicals. Are they deliberately spraying… not sure.

We look at that data a little later on, first let’s have a look at the 10hPa temperature anomaly. 

-10 Kelvin after the Tonga Eruption

So this image shows the 10hPa temperature anomaly (about 8-9km high I think) a -10 Kelvin cooling. It does not matter if it is degrees or another quantifier, along the same quantifier, is used. You can see a big cooling band, it might be even lower than -10, I expect to see more data showing the cooling on that level.

This cooling is directly related to the Aerosols and water vapor from the Tonga eruption. You can also read more about that here

Dust and water vapor make rain and clouds. For that reason I believe the weather events we have been seeing are a direct impact of the Tonga eruption, I believe the Tonga eruption strengthens the effects we see from the grand solar minimum cycle.

The Double Dynamo Effect

Zharkova demonstrates that recent progress in the understanding of the role of solar background magnetic field in defining solar activity and quantifying the observed magnitudes of the magnetic field at different times enabled reliable long-term prediction of solar activity on a millennium timescale.

This approach revealed the presence of not only 11-year solar cycles but also grand solar cycles with a duration of 350 – 400 years.

“These grand cycles are formed by the interferences of two magnetic waves with close but not equal frequencies produced by the double solar dynamo action at different depths of the solar interior. These grand cycles are always separated by grand solar minima of Maunder minimum type, which regularly occurred in the past forming well-known Maunder, Wolf, Oort, Homeric, and other grand minima,” Zharkova noted.

 “During these grand solar minima, there is a significant reduction of the solar magnetic field and solar irradiance, which impose the reduction of terrestrial temperatures derived for these periods from the analysis of terrestrial biomass during the past 12 000 or more years.” 
So in simple terms… it is going to get colder, taking the “warming” into consideration you might expect a cooling of 0.8C a similar effect as what we saw during the maunder minimum.  Why do I mention this? In my humble view, the clouds we see and the rain we have are the results of the Tonga eruption and the Grand Solar Minimum.
Many reports and take pictures of clouds and claim them to be chemtrails, purely based upon the cloud formation, not on the content. If you look at drawings back to the 19th century or further you can see there were similar cloud formations we see now 
Minimum Suns Spots

The diagram above shows the monthly sunspots, as you can see cycle 24, which we just left, was almost the lowest count. Cycle 5 and arguably cycle 6 were smaller. Cycle 25, which we are in now is earmarked by NASA to be the strongest cycle since records began. More knowledgeable people like Diamond from Oppenheimer Ranch and David from Adapt 2030 are not so convinced about that. Time will tell I guess, it will not surprise me if it is as there are a LOT of things at play in our universe at the moment.  

Clouds and Grand Solar Minimums

The effect of increased galactic cosmic rays, the “rays” are actually small particles mostly protons as well as electrons and the nuclei of helium atoms. During a Grand Solar Minimum the increase of these galactic cosmic rays, produce a high level of secondary particles (ions) when cosmic radiation impacts clouds. These ions, in turn, cause an increase in cloud size and lower base height. 

During a Grand Solar Minimum, like the cycles we are in now, there is a reduction in sunspots. The sunspots are in simple terms strong magnets that block or slow down those cosmic rays. The lack of sunspots is basically taking the “breaks” of the cosmic rays. Which in turn increases the cloud. As we progress into Solar Cycle 25 some predict it is going to be the most active cycle EVER, when it comes to sunspots. We are off to a good start, the prediction was 51, and we counted 95 so far meaning we should see fewer clouds. 

This is where the TONGA “theories” come in, based upon the Solar Cycle theory that more sunspots can result in lesser cloud cover, we should see lesser cloud cover but we do not. We see more rain, cooler temperatures, and beautiful red sunsets. To me, that means more dust particles in the air, and from no other than the Tonga eruption. 

The Chemtrail theories

I do not “subscribe” to the Chemtrail Theories (just yet). The simple reason being is that the people I talk to claiming chemtrails and weather impact are confusing. First, there is a difference between cloud seeding and chemtrails. Cloud seeding makes it rain, chemtrails do NOT. Cloud seeding is a proven science and used for decades, chemtrails are NOT.  Many claimed headaches, feeling tired, itchy eyes etc after seeing chemtrails and even rain. Some claim slimy and oily residue on the water in their water tanks or ponds, yet have not tested that water. 

To me, that is all nature really, pollens and then some more pollens and a bit of pollution. The symptoms described (and I am not a medical doctor) are exactly what I get in those described situations… hayfever. The residues on tanks and ponds are pollens, you get a slimy layer on your tanks or dams when there is an outburst of pollens, they fall on the water and the “rotting” process starts. I have suggested taking water samples and having them tested but nobody has done so consistently and often I get told (when suggesting) that there is no trust in the government to provide an honest report. Hence you can understand my skepticism about chemtrails and those who report them.

Don’t get me wrong I have good friends who have no doubt in their minds that chemtrails are real and that it is all one big plan, perhaps it is time will tell. The last few years (2019 – 2022) have shown that nothing is too absurd for our Governments. They have no hesitation to “force” unnecessary chemical injections into the population. 

Neither, ChemTrails or Chemical injections, are scientifically sound or proven, let’s have a quick look at the weird clouds. Below is a cloud formation photo from 1932, beside it is one from 2022 and a drawing from early 1900, as you can see cloud streaks are not new. 

Cloud 1936
Taken in 1936
Taken in 2022
C0225708 Cloud types 19th century artwork

Cloud types, 19th century artwork. At lower left is a cumulonimbus cloud, a storm cloud that has developed vertically to form an anvil-shaped thunderhead. Above it to its right is a cumulus cloud. Directly above the cumulonimbus clouds are altocumulus and then cirrocumulus clouds. At top are cirrus clouds. Artwork from ‘A Treatise on Meteorology: With a Collection of Meteorological Tables’ (1868) by the American mathematician Elias Loomis (1811-1889).

Then when it comes to chemtrails, there are more planes in the air their exhaust condensates more due to the conditions.  So you see them more and they linger more. I have people saying that they lived in EU and only saw the first chemtrails in 2017 or there abouts. As it so happened I grew up in the EU and have seen plenty of planes with long white streaks behind them, which I refer to as exhaust/condensation trails. 

Sun dimming, also claimed to be man-made, has been researched and some trials have been done and it is all possible. What we see currently is a direct impact of the Grand Solar Minimum not man-made, not seeding chemtrails. 

My own data

I have been collecting weather data for decades, recently I had a massive server failure and it is at those times you realise your backup strategy is not as good as you thought it was. So there are a few gaps, not big enough to really make a huge difference. 

I strongly believe we are in a cooling cycle like we were back in the 70sh when the CO2 theory was born to warm the planet. For years I have been advocating for self-sufficiency, growing your own food, and disproving the Global Warming theory. Here at the weather station, we see a cooling of about 0.5C in the last two years, but that might be due to the missing data in the data set. I have to see in a few yrs time. 

Sunshine Hours

Across the board the sunshine hours have been lower than average, they have been dropping below average since 2017.  February had a big dip, which could be caused by the Jan 15 eruption. I am not sure. 

Dayboro Sunshine Hours

Looking at the Sunshine hours, in isolation, I do not think it is conclusive to point to TONGA. The sunshine hours have progressively been dropping since 2014

Solar Energy (w/m2)

This is the Kilowatt hours per meter square. It does not reflect what you get from your solar panels, because this measurement is horizontal and solar panels are angled, so better w/m2. 

Average Max Solar

The solar energy output is above average for November but below average for the year. We still have December to go, and I will update the numbers once the year is finished. 

It does rule out sensor degradation, which is good. 

Average Max UV

Measuring the sunburning portion of the UV spectrum. It measures global solar UV irradiance: the sum of the components of solar UV transmitted directly and those scattered in the atmosphere. It reports the UV index, dose rate, and daily and accumulative doses of UV light.


UV is down a few things that impact UV in the context of this post are clouds, in particular, the density of clouds. Scattered clouds have little or no impact, while full clouds cover a major impact.
The dust from the Tonga eruption can also have an impact as it blankets the southern hemisphere. Looking at the numbers the UV has been dropping since 2014. 

So is it TONGA or is it the SUN?

There is a massive amount of dust and water vapour in the air, there is no doubt that it impacts weather cycles. Looking at my (amateur) data I am unable to draw a direct correlation between TONGA and my data at this stage. This can be for a lot of for reasons. 

I can draw a direct relation between Solar Cycle 24 and my data. Solar Cycle 24 started in December 2008 thereabouts, and peaked in 2014, as you assume from the data it is been going downhill since then. We are now the uphill of solar cycle 25 which means we should see the numbers go up again, but they are not. Does this mean the TONGA eruption has impacted us more than we believe, I think it has. For me, it is too early to call it. 

Chemtrails are they real?

Like with all posts on this topic it is written in favour of the author. Personally, I am not convinced they are what the chemtrail camp claims they are. Let alone what they are supposed to do. 

I assume it is about making us sick, if so then masses in the area should have the same symptoms. 

If it is to dim the sun, to reduce crop yields, etc, well then I find it interesting that it directly correlates with the GSM. If they are successful then we should see a continued decline in sun output measured here on earth. That would support the theory of man-made dimming of the sun. 

Yet along came TONGA, some claim that was man-made as well… (I am really not going there). Tonga kinda buggered up the ability to prove chemtrails, as it has the same outcomes (should chemtrails be real). 

Let’s see what the next cycle brings. 


Well is there one? Have I reached a conclusion or just confused myself even more? (Which is not hard to do). 

There is a conclusion for sure, and that is we are in trouble. Be it either from ChemTrails, Cloud Seeding, Tonga, or Grand Solar Minimum the outcome is the same. Less Growing Degree Days, lower yields, and for that reason less food to go around. 

Two of the four are historically proven to be civilisation “killers” as a result of food shortages, and that is volcanic activity and Grand Solar Minimum. 

One has historical and scientific backing of being the root cause of all of it, and that is the Grand Solar Minimum

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